Теория ограничений Голдратта. Конспект Рустама [Theory of Constraints Goldratt by Dettmer]

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5

future reality tree

Practical exercise

Practical exercises are difficult to come around with, so it saddens us but doesn’t stop.
Let’s adapt one COVID-19 related example.

==THE SITUATION==

We are planning in presenting to the market new product. Educational product. Our goal is to earn X money or if we are operating as a non-profit entity reach a certain level of satisfaction or efficiency.
All actions are happening in specific real life conditions. The world is put on hold, everything works through internet and online meetings are on the rise and product is new on the market. VR education environment.

==YOUR ASSIGNMENT==

Use this new FRT tool to create a possible image of the future, create a prototype:

  • Ensure that any changes will actually advance the goal and critical success factors of the system.
  • Is your approach logically sound, it won’t create devastating side effects on the system.
  • What negative branches might occur and what injections might help with resolving. Or should they be moved from the tree and EC build around them?
  • What positive reinforcing loops might emerge in the tree?

==CREATE A FUTURE REALITY TREE==

When you’ve thought about questions above and proceed with your future reality tree:

  • Gather necessary information (GOAL, CSF, NS, UDE)
  • Assume what conflict might appear and resolve it.
  • Formulate DE (Positive, not neutral). State the effects in present tense use nouns and verbs
  • identify all assumption that underline each arrow.
  • Trim the tree if necessary.

What is FRT and how to build it

Future is built not by sticking to existing rules but by finding a way around status quo. Essentially, brothers Wright took existing reality and applied to it their creativity. They didn’t destroy reality, but improved it. Airfoil, wing and powered flight.

Future reality tree can be used alone without the support of other logical thinking tools (CRT, EC, IOM). That WILL require brute force.

  • Don’t be afraid of negative branches. Firstly you can trim them, and secondly they are important to see if actions are detrimental or beneficial. NB could be built without FRT and trimmed with timely injection(s).

    • One of the most powerful tool. Can save tons of time by preventing mistakes in the first place.
    • NB can be used without the need to construct EC of CRT. It adds a new reality, perspective. We use new injection(s) for this.
    • It helps to look at the impact of our decision from a potentially negative side, though we planned to having only positive effects. Looks similar co Kahnneman’s negative experiment [[Препарирование живого проекта negative experiment]].
    • Assume as many causes as you can, especially around critical arrows.

  • Negative branch trimming

    • First, we incorporate new reality into FRT with injections that we’ve come up with. At the junction where neutral or positive loop began its turn for the worse.
    • Negativity build not directly but laterally, starts as neutral or even positive and somewhere along the way it turns into negative branch. To stop this process, it is required from us to start trimming with new injection.
      • When applying new injection, we shouldn’t be bothered by all assumptions, check only those that are hanging on a transition arrow.
        • The transition arrow is an arrow that leads clearly to the first negative entity.
      • To get to the underlying assumption in NB of FRT we must ask a different from in EC kind of question: If ==cause== … then ==effect==, because ==assumption==.
      • After we’ve articulated all assumptions, we can create an injection that combined with all causes at the tail of the transitional arrow can create a benign or positive effect, rather than negative.
        • The injection that we think produces benign or positive effect must be scrutinized, whether this can be actually done or it is just willful thinking that it can be executed and most importantly will it produce the desired effect?

  • Positive reinforcing loop, in an essence the same what has negative reinforcing loop been but with different polarity. Effect of such loop reinforces positive effect and infinitely beneficial to the system.

  • Injections are new conditions and actions that must be created in current reality for future reality to unfold.

    • Injections are not fixed or predetermined. They can change in any way possible and we initially live in quantum reality with infinite number of variations.
    • DE that is achieved through specific conditions is a culmination of prior effort, a component activity (studying, assessing, applying knowledge, etc.)
    • If injections are actions, expect a substantial number of them.
      • If you set to quickly on a specific action, other possibilities might be closed. And chosen action might be less effective
      • And it brings another problem psychological, by setting too soon you become overexcited about implementation and not solutions, wherever should be the other way around.
      • Purpose of FRT is to validate certain course of actions.
    • As simple as it could possibly be. No silver bullets, aim should be targeted to the simplest change to existing reality. Changes that will produce desired conditions.
      • Sources
        • CRT
        • EC
        • Spontaneous creativity
          • Brainstorm
          • Crawford
          • TRIZ
          • Delphi (what the hell is that)
        • Logical additions
          • Through questions: What must I add to produce DE? Check connection using CLR

  • Build upward by asking: what additional things must be done to make the original idea effective?

    • If you encounter a cause insufficiency between one level and another, you must add the non-yet-existing injection needed to complete logical causality.

  • FRT acts as safety net for CRT and EC, because FRT is a place, you have to be precise. Working consciously with FRT helps with correcting mistakes we’ve made or overlooked in CRT and EC.

  • FRT can ve use as substitution of strategic planning by representing of what needs to be done.

  • When arrows go through a loop, effect expands in formulation

    added cause and
    added cause and577×300 25.1 KB

QUESTIONS

  1. Where did I see thar DE effect can be created from UDE just by changing polarity? Students ==don’t know how to== work with sources => Students ==manage== sources ==competently==. The group agreed that I had seen correctly. Actually it was said in two places in the book.
  2. Can several injection be used in the course of problem solving? I think yes, because we are talking about measures that reasolve conflict and measures include several actions at least. No silver bullets, remember?
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